TEC’s Latest Numbers: The Good News and the Bad News

Editor’s Note: Dr. Goodhew would like to thank Mark Michael and Katie Nakamura Rengers for their advice on this article.

Given the doleful statistical tidings the Episcopal Church has faced in recent years, it is understandable that there is quiet satisfaction at the latest data. In 2023, average Sunday attendance rose by 37,000, compared to 2022. This is good news — and a number of other metrics reinforce this picture.

But one year’s positive data doesn’t mean revival. This article looks at the longer-term picture, which makes clear the challenges that TEC faces have not gone away.

Attendance

Average Sunday attendance rose in 2023, compared to 2022. But the number that really counts is not how 2023 compares with 2022, but how 2023 compares with 2019 — the last normal year before COVID.

Average Sunday attendance in TEC’s domestic churches
2019    518,000
2022    349,000
2023    386,000

TEC congregations rose in 2023, but were still way down compared to what they were in 2019. The latest numbers show that the modest rebound from COVID that started in 2022 continued into 2023 — but that overall, the denomination is much smaller, still about a quarter down compared to pre-COVID.

There remains the issue of online church attendance. This has been called the holy grail of ecclesial data-gatherers. It is very hard to draw clear conclusions from it. It means something, but it is wrong to assume that you can add online worshipers to those who worship in person. Some engage both online and in person; some engage online but in no other way; some online worshipers access multiple sites and may appear in the stats as if they were multiple people.

It is striking that online worship has risen, but TEC’s membership, baptisms, and confirmations have not risen in the same way. This suggests that many of those watching are already members of TEC and that others watching are “cyber-gnostics,” who are willing to access faith in the two dimensions of the screen, but are unwilling to access it materially — by the water of baptism or by bread and wine.

A Different Metric: Baptism

Baptism is an underused metric in the contemporary church. In the case of TEC, the bulk of people baptized in the past have been children. Baptisms rose in 2023, but it helps to have a longer data set.

Child baptisms in TEC’s domestic dioceses
1980    56,167
1990    56,862
2000    46,603
2010    28,990
2019    17,713
2022    14,406
2023    14,735

The number of children baptized by TEC’s domestic dioceses rose in 2023, compared to 2022 — but not by much. (I have excluded data relating to dioceses outside of the United States.) Again, what matters is the contrast between 2023 and pre-COVID, 2019. Here it is clear that the long-term deep decline in baptism continues. In 2023, TEC baptized nearly 3,000 fewer children than it did in 2019. In 2010, only 14 years ago, TEC baptized double the number of children it baptized in 2023. In 2000, TEC baptized over three times the number of children it baptized in 2023.

And baptism rose in 2023 markedly less than overall attendance. Attendance rose by 10 percent, but baptisms of children rose by 2 percent. This suggests that families are a disproportionately smaller segment of the rise in attendance — a trend that can be seen elsewhere in Western Anglicanism.

TEC had been a quasi-ethnic denomination, whose members mostly entered it via birth. As late as the start of the 21st century, that was still the case. It is so no more. And the decline remains swift. At the current rate, TEC will baptize fewer than 10,000 children annually by 2030. That would be less than a quarter of the number it was baptizing as recently as 2000.

The fall in baptisms fits with a church rapidly aging, with fewer and fewer families. Of course, there is a minority of stronger congregations with a wide age spread, and that is something for which to give thanks. The issue here is the overall picture.

And the fall in baptisms is a theological challenge, too. Large numbers of TEC’s churches either baptize few or no people. In so doing, they are no longer properly sacramental. Jesus did not just institute the Eucharist. But many supposedly sacramental churches operate as if there was only one sacrament. This is like trying to keep a plane airborne with only one wing.

The Number of Churches

A different, crude, but illuminating metric is the number of Parishes and Missions in TEC. From 2004 to 2023, this fell by almost a thousand, from 7,200 to 6,223. The rate of closures has lessened in recent years, but it is still substantial. There has been renewed interest in church planting in TEC in recent years, not all of which is reflected in TEC’s statistics. However, it remains the case that the denomination is closing considerably more churches than it is opening.

At the same time, the population of the United States has risen dramatically in recent decades. Many of those who have migrated to the United States in recent years are firmly Christian. Huge swathes of new housing have sprung up — and continue to spring up. So the need for new TEC churches is huge. Moreover, TEC’s tradition was, until the 1960s, one in which starting new churches was commonplace. Were TEC to embrace a vigorous church-planting strategy, it would meet a massive pastoral need, be more faithful to its tradition, and lay hold of serious means for turning its cycle of decline into a cycle of growth.

A different question is the nature of “new churches.” Lessons from England suggest that the key need is for robust metrics. Many “new worshiping communities” are really social-action projects or children’s work rebadged, or even fellowship groups for existing church members. For me, the best metric is the simplest — numbers of baptisms and confirmations. If there is little activity on this front, such new worshiping communities may be laudable in themselves, but of little help in stemming the decline of TEC’s congregations.

Global Majority Anglicans

Millions of people of global majority heritage have migrated to the United States in recent decades. A substantial number come from lands with large Anglican communities — including hundreds of thousands from lands such as Nigeria and India. A great many have a deep attachment to their Anglican identity. How many have found their way to TEC? It appears that only a small number have done so.

Given that the theology of many of their home parishes is in tension with that of many TEC parishes, this is not wholly surprising. But TEC has to ask itself why it does not connect with so many members of the Anglican Communion — let alone the many other migrants from other Christian denominations. At the moment they are more likely to join the ACNA or other denominations or set up new congregations than to join TEC. Does it have to be that way?

This raises the vexed question of how inclusive inclusivity should be. Is it about including people with whom one already largely agrees, or can it include those who vigorously question certain aspects of TEC’s life?

Overall

That TEC grew in 2023 is good news, but it remains far smaller than it was in 2019, before the COVID juggernaut rolled in. Moreover, the collapse of its baptismal ministry since 2000 shows no sign of slowing and bodes ill for the future. There is a minority of lively, baptismal parishes in TEC, but the growing majority of congregations baptize a fraction of the number that they baptized a few years ago. This means that in the coming decades TEC will likely continue to age and shrink.

Growth and decline are vexed questions for the church. There is no magic formula. Equally, to assume decline is “inevitable” is fatalism. The Christian tradition has bounced back many times before. Who are we to tell God what is and is not possible?

American Christianity is experiencing more of the chill winds of secularization now than a few decades ago. But a significant number of American churches and denominations is growing. Some are within TEC, and the denomination urgently needs to ask why they are so doing. More generally, churches that connect with the many migrants of global majority heritage are most likely to see growth. Whether TEC is able to move in this direction is one of the key issues it faces in the coming decade.