Christianity’s Future

In 2000, I made a presentation in the Diocese of Texas on the importance of the 20/20 movement for the future of the Episcopal Church. For over two years, I worked with an extraordinary task force of eight leaders appointed by Dean George Warner, president of the House of Deputies, and Presiding Bishop Frank Griswold. Our initial report laid out the best-case scenario for a healthy expansion of the church in the next 20 years. Here is a synopsis of my report.

First, I pointed out that while the task force was optimistic and had suggested strategies to reach the movement’s goal of doubling the size of the Episcopal Church by 2020, we believed that even maintaining our current size might be the best we could hope because of a monumental change on the horizon.

This change was that we were beginning to witness large losses of the GI generation, which Bishop Andy Doyle would later call the Tsunami of Death. That is a vivid description of the catastrophic effect that their loss would have, not only on Episcopalians, but all of Christianity in North America. Of the “Greatest Generation,” 60% were members of churches or synagogues and tended to be denominationally loyal. Their sustained participation in churches had kept membership at 40 to 42 percent of the U.S. population for 50 years.

They were being replaced by Millennials, who were projected to be less than 10 percent of participants in churches, with those who were church members having little or no denominational loyalty. This information had many church consultants repeating Lyle Schaller’s observation that “demographics are destiny.” I shared that if these changes were not offset by the intentional actions of current church leaders, the result would be that by 2020, church participation would drop to 20 percent from its historic 50-year average.

I further pointed out that this 20 percent would only be sustained by the 40 percent of Boomers and the 18 percent of Generation X who were church members. During that time there would also be a shift among denominations, with the diminishing of the old Protestant mainline. In 2020, the two largest groups of Christians would be the Roman Catholic Church, sustained by immigration, and a coalition of American-born denominations under the umbrella of “Conservative Evangelical Churches.” In other words, not only would Christianity in North American decline, but its makeup would change radically.

In 2019, church participation did indeed drop to 20 percent, and evangelicals became a dominant voice (exemplified in the MAGA movement), and decline in the Episcopal Church continues into 2024.

Now Christians face another challenge. If current trends continue, using Bishop Doyle’s sea imagery, the receding tide of Boomers will mean that by 2035, Christianity in North America will drop to 10 percent or less of the population. During my life in this church, I have watched all this unfold. I joined the Episcopal Church and was confirmed in 1958. That year marked the largest one-year growth of our church, as we surged by over 58,000 people. By 1965, we had 3.5 million members, which represented over 3 percent of the U.S. population. We have been in decline since then. We are less than .05 percent of over 330 million Americans today.

This story of decline should give every Christian leader today, especially the leaders of the Episcopal Church, a sober awakening, and a sense of urgency.

Do you sense “urgency” in our leaders? I am not talking about anxiety. Anxiety often immobilizes people and leads to bad decisions, both individually and as a community. Urgency is the mark of any good leader.

As we proceed to General Convention this summer, no one is talking about this elephant in the living room. No resolution addresses this. Of the nominees for Presiding Bishop, Bishops Gutierrez and Rowe have diocesan policies on revitalization of congregations which I have seen work, however none of the nominees addressed specially the question of future growth and the problem created by the general decline of Christianity.

After the House of Bishops received a sobering report on the decline of our community post-COVID, one diocesan bishop reported this information to her diocese, but then declared with assurance, “The Church isn’t declining, it is transforming, and that is a good thing.” It’s hard to see this as anything other than denial. It reminded me of the response of one clergy person to my report back in 2000. Standing up, he declared, “I do not believe Jesus will allow his Church to fail!” I pointed out that he had allowed it in many places, most recently in Europe. I then reminded everyone that I had said, “If these trends continue.” I added that leadership could change our destiny. We still need that leadership to step forward.

Finally, I want to add this observation from an old boomer, born in 1946. I am particularly concerned about the shift in denominations of what we might call “the collective voice.” While I have known many evangelicals who were thoughtful and scholarly, like John Stott and J.I. Packer, I grieve the fact that as 2035 approaches, the dominant voice will be that of strident conservatism. I want my great-grandchildren to hear the voice of reasoned and compassionate Christianity, which has been one of the great contributions of Anglicanism from the 16th century onward. If nothing else changes, they will not hear this, which is all the more reason for us to take our future seriously through concerted and responsible action.